Ahyoung Yutnori Discussion

[Jinho]

Well, the thing is you're now in a position of power being the one who is 1 space from finishing by going backwards. We're not really forced to stop her from going backwards on this turn but it would be good to do it as a precaution. With you, they are absolutely forced to stop you from moving backwards.

The only bad thing is they will learn from your turn this strategy of taking advantage of it and surprising with double blanks. So maybe after you take advantage of it and get a few extra turns, for Kyungrand we throw one double blank and then one of each. I don't think she'd expect us to crack in the second turn. And if she decides to move another piece instead of the one closer to the finish, she's taking a big risk because I could potentially still capture her.

[Ahyoung]

I think doing blanks IS the obvious move for me to do though, that's why I'm worried about it for my turn. They may try to think one step ahead. Because we know they need to throw 2 blanks to stop any chance of me going backwards. In their position I think I'd do 2 X.

[Jinho]

Well, that's what I meant by "or do you wanna go fancy" question My guess is they will try to do a double blank for at least one turn before they would try something special to keep you from going too much.

I'll leave this one to you, I tend to overthink things and I wouldn't want to influence you on your own turns, it's bad enough I'm going crazy on mine

[Ahyoung]

This feels like the make or break decision of the game for me, I could win it here but I think if I go wrong I've opened the door for her to come back and beat me. That's why it's so scary!

[Jinho]

I agree that this game can change in an instant with that possibility to finish by just moving backwards, but let's not forget that so far you're closer to that finish with both pieces, I think we should try to make the most of this advantage.

[Ahyoung]

Bandage Man For Eunji's turn one of each please, in case I didn't make that clear before.

[Ahyoung]

Okay so now it's time for the big decision and I still haven't made up my mind. If you were me, you'd do double blanks, right? And if you were in Kyungran's spot, what would you do?

[Jinho]

Well, Eunji started with the mind games when she posted that this could be over during the next turn.

There are two choices only here. Go for a double blank to prevent you finishing like that or take a huge risk and try one of the two others.

If I where in her shoes (not if I were her exactly because I'm not sure how she's going to think), I would throw one double blank first. Then if I saw that you got an extra turn, I could change it now or go for one more turn. My instincts playing against a conservative player would be to try double blank again expecting that you would change. If after a secodn turn you wouldn't change, I would then go to double X expecting that even if you do change, you wouldn't change for one of each but rather for another double X but knowing that there's a big chance you would go for double blanks once more.

So the best way to counter my "Kyungran thinking" would be double blanks, double blanks and then one of each. Buuuut, they are in a position of losing this regardless if they give you too many turns so they might be willing to take a gamble with something else than double blanks. Hf they were to throw double X for example, they know there is 1/3 chance they lost the game and 2/3 they managed to survive without pushing your second piece too close to the finish.

It's really a hard call.

[Ahyoung]

I can see good reason for them to go either double X or double blank. They'd assume I would go for one of those too. Thing is though, if they go for double blanks and I do too, they're letting me take the corner and the quick way of getting around, which is very bad for them. That's why I'd lean towards doing 2 X if I were her, because even if I do that as well and get an extra turn, if I have to move my piece at the start I'm going to be making it go the long way around. The crazy move for me would be one of each, I don't think they'd see that coming. But it'd be a pretty stupid move for me in the end if they did go for double blanks

[Ahyoung]

Bandage Man double blanks please.

[Jinho]

Fingers crossed.

[Jinho]

Ok, so the best thing that could have happened has happened. Now it's a crucial moment since you could win it with this next move. If you get another 4 blanks, you move to the center of the board, change once again direction towards the finish line and I think mathematically there is no way they could catch any of your pieces. We keep throwing double blanks on your turns and even if they throw double XX each time, you finish the game within 3 turns. And in 3 turns, if we keeep throwing one of each for everyone else, nobody can catch you. At the same time, if we manage to get a back movement, you finish the game in this turn by reaching the end with both pieces. So they are screwed regardless. When I told you that if I were Kyungran I would throw double blanks at least two times, I didn't realise that if you get a second throw with four blanks you've just won the game. So this is tricky.


So let's say I am Kyungran again and thinking of my possible moves. If I throw double blanks again, worst case scenario you throw double blanks and win the game. Other scenarios are that you capture Eunji's piece or that you move just one step ahead of her.
If I throw one of each, worst case scenario, you move backwards and win the game. Other scenarios are that you capture Eunji's piece or that you move just one step ahead of her.
If I throw double X, worst case scenario, you move backwards and win the game. Other scenarios, are that you capture Eunji's piece or that you get a 5 spaces movement and yet another turn with the same odds as before.

It would seem that double X is the worst move for Kyungran. But at the same time she won't guide herself just on the possible scenarios but also on what you are most likely to do again.

From your perspective, a double blank means a possible win, capturing Eunji or moving just one step ahead. One of each, means a possible win, capturing Eunji or moving just one step ahead. Double X means a possible win, getting an extra turn or capturing Eunji.

So if I were Kyungran I'd expect you to do either a double X which gives you the best statistical chance of being on top, or a double blank which would follow the patter from the previous turn. My best move for your double X is a double blank (one of each loses the game and double X puts me at a great disadvantage). My best move for your double blank is one of each (double X also works but double blanks loses the game).


This time I am really really torn. I am tempted to tell you to go for double X next since it would be damn risky for them to go for double blanks. But if they do go for double blanks and we miss this chance, I won't be able to forgive myself. Your call in the end but it has to be one of double blanks or double X.

[Ahyoung]

Remember Eunji's piece is actually 3 spaces ahead, he hasn't updated the image with her recent move.

Double X is Kyungran's worst move and my best move, definitely. I remember when it was your turn a little while ago they expected you to do your statistically best move, which they countered by doing their statistically worst move, but you saw that coming and so didn't do the obvious choice. Will they remember that this time, or again try to counter my obvious best move?

There's no way she can do XO I think. The likelihood of me doing XX is too high. And I think she knows I won't do XO either. So it's really 50/50 for both of us. Except OO could win the game for me now, whereas with XX she still has another shot. But it would lead straight back to this situation. I'm leaning towards XX too though. But I want to think more on it. It's annoying that Eunji is in the middle because she could potentially get my newer piece if I have to move down her way. That would be their only hope, at this point.

[Jinho]

You're right, forget everything I said about capturing Eunji. To be honest, when I wrote the previous post, I was leaning towards double X. Later I started preferring double blank and now I'm considering one of each.

So my head is a mess but the good thing is they should be even worse than that. We're now gambling whether you win now or just remain with a huge advantage so all the pressure is on them.

I'll think it a bit more but I get the feeling I won't be able to reach a final decision and instead will oscillate between all three options.

[Ahyoung]

I know, I'm the same, I go back and forth It seems like a lucky dip tbh. If we think they'll do double X, we should do one of each. If we think they'll do blanks, we should do blanks. Doing one of each seems so scary, but if you think about it, it's the superior option over double X IF we have come to the conclusion that she won't do one of each herself.