Ahyoung Yutnori Discussion

[Jinho]

Yeah, that's exactly my way of thinking. I started with the obvious double blank, went then to double X as a surprise and then realised that one of each is better than double X. And in the meanwhile I'm considering double blanks again because I think we're overthinking and they might go for yet another double blanks.

I'll go check something from previous turns.

[Jinho]

Yeah so here's how that time with three turns for me worked.

1. I needed to move two so I threw a double blank. They realised it and countered with another double blank.

2. I was not happy about turn 1 so my instinct was to change thinking they would once more go for what suited them the first time. I went for double X. They read me perfectly and threw a double X as well.

3. Again I was not happy about turn 2. This time, my insting would have been to change again for double blank. Instead I decided to go against that and throw double X again. Once again they decided to anticipate my instinct and they changed from double X back to double blank. So I ended getting my precious 2 spaces move.

It's funny because now, that I look back, I can't believe they didn't go for one of each on that third turn. They got greedy, hoping to push me even further with an extra turn and paid the price for it.

Now back to the present, I am trying to analyze the situation once again from that perspective.

1. You throw double blank going for the extra turn. They expect you to throw one of each to go for backwards move and throw double blank themselves.

2. You are happy about the last turn. Your instinct would be to go for double blanks again especially since that would earn you the victory. They should anticipate that and try to counter it. Their best move to counter would be one of each but it would also be a very risky one so I think they would rather go for double X. Which means we should go for one of each.

However, last time we played this instinct / coutner instinct game they lost. So this time, they might expect we would go against the instinct. On the other hand, that last time when we went against the instinct, we did it on the third turn after two failed turns. This time it's only our second turn and it comes right after a success.

Right now, I am thinking 65% to go for one of each and 35% to go for double blanks.

[Ahyoung]

Now I'm getting worried that they'll figure we'll do one of each because it's seeming like the good move. And so do one of each themselves. But actually...I'm thinking now how to best guarantee my win. If I do XX and so do they, I move 5 and get Eunji which takes her away as a threat to get my piece. I then get another throws and it'll take a maximum of 5 throws, or 4 turns after this one, to get the win. Meanwhile, if I make sure Kyungran doesn't go backwards with combined pieces, then she will definitely take more than 4 turns to win. If I've correctly calculated all of this. In which case, I will guarantee a win by XX if they go XO OR XX, just taking a bit longer with the latter. Whereas if I go XO and so do they then I could possibly still lose. So I think I do have to do XX over XO.

But that still doesn't answer the question of OO vs XX

[Jinho]

There were 3 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

XO
XX
OO

IP: -------
Timestamp: 2016-06-17 09:54:10 UTC

[Jinho]

That was obviously a joke about the random.org but still I don't know what to say anymore.

If I were you at this exact moment, I would go for XX until the end of time. You either win the game, move A LOT or move a little but have the knowledge that you've tried your best.

[Jinho]

And I mentioned "at this exact moment" because this is bound to change every 10 minutes.

[Ahyoung]

I actually flipped a coin when I did that OO move, and it told me to do XX. I was about to post it when I thought, oh sod that, I need to do what I think is best, and switched

[Ahyoung]

Do you think my calculations are correct about 4X winning me the game?

[Jinho]

Jun 17, 2016 20:02:26 GMT 10 Ahyoung said:

Do you think my calculations are correct about 4X winning me the game?

I didn't check, I'll do it right now.

[Jinho]

Ok, I've checked. Right now, if you get XXXX you take out Eunji's first piece and you can win the game in 5 turns including this one. That is if we keep throwing double blanks and they throw double X to counter us and right when you're about to unite your two pieces they throw one of each to make you have to wait onre more turn.

For Kyungran the fastest finish would be XXOO to unite her pieces followed by two XXXO. But that would be easy to counter. We should indeed throw OO first to make sure she doesn't move back. But if she manages to unite her pieces, then we throw yet another OO to take her away from the start and next all we have to do is throw XO each time to keep her moving slow in any direction without gettin extra turns.

If on the other hand on that first turn, she doesn't get to unite her pieces, it's all the easier for us. The point is that regardless of what she does, we have mathematical chance of stopping her from finishing the games in those 5 turns it would take for you to finish.

So yeah, with XXXX now you win the game. As well as with OOOO. As well as with XXXO. We only have to avoid XXOO and XOOO.

[Jinho]

This calculation of mine that we have to avoid XXOO and XOOO makes me think they could throw OO as that would be their best shot at not losing instantly. However, I'm not sure they've made all these projections.

To be fair, you know as well as I do that you're in a waaay better position right now than Kyungran is and that there's a 90% chance you'll win this deathmatch. I think Kyungran knows it as well and I'm not sure if she's willing to invest as much time and effort into it. I know that if I were in her shoes I'd be wishing it was all over since I knew I probably lost.

[Ahyoung]

Awesome! Thanks for checking That's what I thought, with us just throwing her an OO so she has to move forward at some point, she can't win. So 3/5 combinations win me the game! Really my only worry is Eunji catching the newer piece. In this case I think I should just go XX.

[Ahyoung]

Oh sorry, that last post was on a new page and I didn't see it. I hope Kyungran just picked one at random to make it quicker Better odds for me. But I see the point of her doing OO since it's only 1/3 I get that right.

[Jinho]

Yeah, if she does think of as many scenarios as we did, she should know that OO is her best shot and throw it. But as mentioned, I'm not sure if at this point she's willing to invest as much time into a challenge she's likely to lose anyway, just a bit later.

[Jinho]

By the way, I think this deathmatch beats the Jury game as far as involvement for me goes. Once this whole ORG is over I'm gonna miss overthinking things around here.